Melvin Day：Handicapping 让磅赛

Melvin Day（资深评磅师：梅尔文·戴依）

HANDICAPPING 让磅赛

Horse racing is all about the staging  of exciting races, which captivate racegoers and television viewers around the world.

Racing has evolved differently from country to country but almost everywhere there are handicap contests. A handicap race is a race for which horses are allotted a certain weight according to their ability, with the best carrying more weight. The aim of a handicap is to give each horse an equal chance. Horses are all allocated varying weights by an official whose job is to assess the ability of every horse in that jurisdiction.

The skill of the handicapper(s) is the key to making such races competitive and we hope to explain this more clearly.

2017年4月2日，第四届成都迪拜国际杯首场比赛冠军王文勋

举办赛马比赛的目的在于呈现精彩激烈的赛事，来吸引前往比赛的现场观众以及来自世界各地坐在电视机前收看比赛的观众。

尽管赛马比赛的形式在各个国家都不尽相同，但是几乎任何地方都有让磅赛这种比赛形式。让磅赛是指在同一场比赛中，依据每匹赛马的能力，背负不同的重量，能力越强的马，负磅也就越重。这种让步规则的目的，是为了让每匹赛马都有相同的机会取得胜利。赛事官员会对每匹赛马的能力做出权威评估，并为他们分配应承载的负磅。

评磅员的专业技术是确保赛事竞技性的关键。接下来我们将就此做出更详细的解释。

THE HANDICAPPER 评磅员

Melvin Day

The handicapper is one of the senior officials employed by the racing authority. He (she) has to be independently minded, fair and impartial, possess a good deal of racing experience and be capable of making logical interpretations of all race performances. He has several important duties, as follows:

To establish and maintain the handicap rating file. This file will list all horses in training in alphabetical order by age group. Each horse will be identified by name, with suffix (country of birth), year of foaling and sex. By definition, a handicap is a race in which the weights to be carried by horses are adjusted for the purpose of equalizing their chances of winning.

To apportion weights for every handicap and play a pivotal role in race planning, in which he will assist in the framing of races with advice on penalties and allowances.

When the entries and declarations are published, he will ensure the eligibility of each horse and that the weight it has been assigned to carry is correct, according to the conditions of the race.

To attend race meetings, to observe and analyze race performances. Also, if required by the Stewards, he must be capable of quantifying any inordiante improvement or deterioration in the performance of any of the runner.

To establish and maintain regular contact with senior handicappers of all the major racing authorities and to exchange ratings and performance records of all horses that are entered and race at international race meeting.

Melvin Day

评磅员是指由赛事官方委任的资深赛事官员。他（她）必须有独立的思考的能力，公正公平的品质，丰富的赛马相关经验，并且能够对赛事成绩做出符合逻辑的解读。他主要的责任包括以下几点：

建立并存留让磅赛评分文件。这是一份依据全部马匹的年龄组别，按照字母表顺序编制的文件。每匹马会以马匹名字作为区分，并附带马匹（出生国家），出生年份和性别等信息。很明显，让磅赛这种比赛类型是指让每匹马背负不同的重量，以确保他们有均等的机会获胜。

在让磅赛的比赛设计中，负磅是非常重要的。评磅员需要协助设计赛事，并对惩罚和减磅提出建议。

当条目和声明发布后，按照比赛制定的条件，评磅员需要核实马匹参赛资格的有效性并确保马匹负磅准确无误。

观摩比赛，并对比赛表现进行观察和评估。同时，在赛事董事的要求下，评磅员需要具有能够对每匹赛马获得的成绩中过度提升和退步的表现进行量化评估的能力。

与重要赛马权威机构的高级评磅员建立联系并保持定期交流，交换所有参加国际赛事的马匹的评分和成绩记录。

HANDICAP RATINGS 让磅赛评分

Reynaldothewizard (R Mullen) winning at Meydan racecourse, January 2017.

Gave R Mullen his first Grade 1 win in 2013& continues to race despite his advancing age.

魔幻法师（理查德穆伦）在迈丹赛马场2017年1月的比赛中拔得头筹。

尽管理查德穆伦年龄一天天的增加，但还是赢得了2017年读他的第一场G1比赛胜利。

A “Handicap Rating” (HR) is usually issuead after a horse has raced three times. The HR is based on the handicappers’ assessment of the horse’s current ‘Form’, using “Performance Ratings’ from his most recent races. The handicapper also takes other factors into account (discussed in later section)

All horses on the handicap file are listed on a scale from 0 to 140lbs (pounds).

A horse with a rating between 0 to 40 would have very little ability and would almost certainly have been well beaten in the poorest of races.

A horse with a rating between 120 and 140 would be a top class horse, a performer in Group One or Grade One Company, the highest level. For example champion racehorse Dubai Millenium was rated 134 by the panel on international handicappers of the International Classifications (now called the World Thoroughbred Racehorse Rankings), in 2000. Arrogate is also rated at 134.

通常情况下，马匹在参加过三次比赛后才会得到它的“让磅赛评分” (HR)。依据对马匹当下状态的评判,评磅员使用马匹最近期比赛的“成绩分数”为该匹赛马计算出他的”让磅赛评分”。评磅员也会在执行中考虑到其他因素（见下文细论）。

所有让磅赛马匹的评分在0-140磅之间。

评分在0到40磅的赛马相对来说能力差强人意，很可能在比赛中被轻易击败。

评分在120到140的马匹则是赛马中的佼佼者，可以在一级赛事，既最高等级的比赛中获得很好的成绩。举例来说，冠军赛马“迪拜千禧”在2000年被国际评磅员按照国际分类（现在称为世界纯血赛马评级）评出134分的高分。“鸠占鹊巢”的评分也是134分。

RACING PARAMETERS 赛马参数

Horses are rated on a pound scale from 0 to 140. The intentionally accepted parameter for a Group or Grade one performer is a rating of 115 whilst for a Group or Grade two is 110, and for Group or Grade Three it is 105. Listed races are generally accepted as being 100.

From the above information, it is possible to work out where the remaining races in the calendar fit into the 0-140 scale. Given that there are more moderate horses in the 0 to 40 bracket than the horses rated between 100 and 140, the average on most handicap files would be 70 to 80.

In the UK, a maiden (a horse that has never won a race) with a rating of 75 would be considered unfortunate not to have hit the target by the end of the season if he were competing in maiden events at one of the smaller racetracks. On the other hand, if he were campaigned in maidens at, say, Newmarket or Newbury he would find it difficult to be competitive, as on average the winner at those tracks would probably be rated 85-95.

A horse rated 85 would almost certainly be confined to racing in handicaps for the remainder of his career but would also be competitive in conditions races (base weight, plus extra weight incurred for having won a race or races) at a minor racetrack.

A horse with a rating of 95 would again be likely to run in handicaps but could also be competitive in conditions race at the better race meetings. He would also be worth entering in Listed events in the hope that the opposition was not too strong.

Horses rated 60 or below would struggle to be competitive even in maidens at the minor.

赛马被依据磅量评出从0到140的评分。按照国际惯例的参数，评分在115分以上的赛马可以参加一级赛事，评分在110分以上的赛马可以参加二级赛事，评分在105分以上的赛马可以参加三级赛事。参加表列赛的门槛通常是100分。

按照上述的信息，我们可以得出在0分至140分区间其他比赛的分级。从0分到40分区间这些表现平平的赛马，到100至140分的顶级赛马，在大多数让磅赛的马匹平均分约为70到80分。

以英国为例，如果一匹评分达到75分的赛马的处女赛是在一个较小型的赛场参赛，但在赛季末并未获得名次，会被认为是很遗憾的事。然而，如果这匹赛马在诸如纽玛克或纽伯里参赛，它会显得很没有竞争力，因为纽玛克和纽伯里参赛的马匹通常评分都高达85到95分。

一匹评分85分的赛马，在它的职业生涯中，几乎肯定被限制为仅能参加让磅赛，或是能在某些小型赛马场举办的条件赛（基础负磅，在获得某场或数场比赛后增加额外负磅）中赢得一席之地。

评分在95分的赛马，也极有可能只参加让磅赛，但也会在某些较大型的比赛的条件赛中露脸。在参赛对手不是很强大的情况下，95分的赛马也可能有机会入选表列赛。

评分在60分以下的赛马，就算是在小型赛场举办的处女赛中都很难有竞争力，它们有可能只能参加那些评级最低的让磅赛。

PRINCIPLES OF HANDICAPPING 让磅原则

Animal Kingdom (2013 winner)

动物王国（2013年冠军）

A glance at the handicappers’ file will show the relative merits of each racehorse. A horse rated at 115 is deemed 30lbs superior to one rated at 85 and a horse with a rating of 120 in 2017 is considered on a par with a horse that was rated 120 in 2012. How does the pound (lb) rating equate to lengths?

The effect that weight has on slowing down a racehorse is that for each pound (or kg) carried in a race over 5 furlongs (1,000 metres) it will slow a horse down by over 0.6 metres (a neck), and in a 2 mile race (3,200 metres) by about 2.5 metres (one length). So 30lbs per length, equals 10 lengths and 30lbs over 2 miles, at one pound per length, would be 30 lengths. At distances around a mile (1,600 metres) the accepted conversions is that one length equals 1kg and at intermediate (10 furlongs/2,000 metres) and middle distances (12 furlongs/2,400 metres) one length equals 0.75kg.

These weight-to-distance equivalents are by no means 100 percent exact but they still provide a good guide in helping to assess the merits of the racehorse. They will, for example, be altered by extreme conditions. The handicapper would be fully entitled to use the 1.5kg per length over 5 furlongs on fast ground but it would almost certainly be inaccurate to use the same equivalent if the ground was very soft or heavy. He may choose to use 1kg or even 0.75kg per length in the latter case. This would be up to the individual concerned and he would base his decision on previous similar extreme conditions, with possible reference to standard race times.

                        Distance                                        Kilos per Length

                        5f (1,000 metres)                                1.5

                        6f (1,200 metres)                                1.25                        

                        7f-9f (1,400-1,800 metres)                 1

                        10f-12f (2,000-2,400 metres)             0.75

                        12f plus (2,400 metres)                      0.5

简略的浏览一下让磅文档，则可以让我们了解每匹赛马的相对优势。一匹评分在115的赛马和一匹85分的赛马相比，会有30磅的额外负磅。而一匹在2017年评分为120分的赛马，则可以被看作和一匹2012年评分120分的赛马旗鼓相当。那么，评分与距离之间是怎么样的等价关系呢？

赛马的每一磅（或一公斤）负重，在每5个弗隆（1000米）的路程中，会让赛马速度放慢0.6米（一个马颈），在一个两英里（3200米）的赛程中，则会被减缓2.5米（一个马身）。所以，每30磅的负重，按照每磅一个马身来计算，在2英里的赛程中会让赛马少跑30个马身的距离。在中短距离的赛事，约一英里（1600米）的赛程中，一个马身被换算成1公斤的负重，而在中等距离的赛事（12弗隆/2400米）的赛程，一个马身被换算成0.75 公斤的负重。

这样的“重量-距离”换算公式并不是百分之百的精确，但是仍然对评估赛马优势提供了很好的指导。这种换算在某些极端情况下会被调整。评磅员会被授予全权在赛道状况优良的5弗隆赛程中采用1.5公斤/马身的换算公式，但是如果赛道状况湿软，则该换算几乎肯定会不准。在湿软的赛道，评磅员更可能采用1公斤/马身或甚至是0.75公斤/马身的换算。这些判断都是需要由评磅员根据之前所经历的极端状况，也或会参考标准比赛时间，独立作出决策。

                        距离                                            公斤/马身

                              5弗隆 (1,000 米)                                            1.5

                             6f弗隆(1,200 米)                                           1.25                        

                             7弗隆-9弗隆(1,400-1,800 米)                    1

                            10弗隆-12弗隆 (2,000-2,400 米)               0.75

                            12弗隆以上 (2,400 米)                                 0.5

影响赛马比赛成绩的因素

对于一个评磅员榜员扮演的角色，最被人认同的说法是：按照比赛胜负比数，通过调整负重（评分），并将整个流程简化为合理的数学运算。

可以肯定的是，赛马的评估和让磅估值，都是有着数学和科学依据的，尽管如此，这项工作在实际操作中并非那么简单。对于一个评磅员来说，他的工作完成理论上的最佳情况是-经过负磅后，所有参赛者全部打成平局（实际上几乎不可能），或是最少每个参赛者都有均等的机会获胜。在实际操作中，存在着很多能影响比赛成绩的因素，而这些因素都不受评磅员的掌握。评磅员在评判比赛成绩的时候，需要将所有的这些因素考虑进去。谨记，评磅员绝非只是单纯的评判赛马的负磅，他需要评估每场比赛，并得出一个合理的评分。

我们刚才从算数的角度提及了赛道情况对评磅的影响，抛开负重因素，对于大多数赛马来说，他们不能发挥出全部实力的最主要的原因，在于他们不能在自己最具有优势的赛道条件下参赛。按理说每匹赛马在优良赛道上都能跑出好的成绩，但是有些赛马可能更适应湿滑或者干硬的赛道。鉴于此，比赛的成绩很大程度取决于赛马对赛道的适应程度。很显然，一个马赛爱好者，需要明白这些情况，并酌情减磅，因为这些马匹可能并不是在自己最擅长的赛道上奔跑。

另外一个能显著影响比赛成绩的因素则是赛程距离。一匹马的血统，在某种程度上，甚至是他的习性，都能让马主或者驯马师了解它最擅长什么距离的赛程，并参考各种影响因素和马匹的历史比赛成绩，明智的安排自己的赛马去参加最合适的赛程。评磅员也需要辨明哪些赛马是在参加一些不太适合自己能力的赛程。

抽签闸位也会起到至关重要的作用，尤其是在短途冲刺赛中。但是，通过好的抽签闸位得到的优势，如果起跑过缓，可能会无法保持。有的时候，因为起跑闸位不好，某些马匹在起跑时可能滞后，但是如果他更擅长跟跑和后期发力，它也可能会取得一个很好的最终成绩。同样，评磅员需要关注抽签闸位和闸位带来的可能的优势和劣势。有时候，缓慢的起跑和终点的冲刺会呈现出一种貌似“不真实”的比赛结果。

OTHER FACTORS

1．“Performance Ratings” and taking each horse individually, is he progressive or regressive? Consistent or inconsistent?

2. Was the horse suited by the PACE at which the race was run? Races run at SLOW pace are often misleading.

3. Did the DRAW have any effect on his performance?

4. Was he slow to start?

5. Did he meet inference at the start or during the race?

6. Was he suited by the distance of the race?

7. Did he handle the track okay?

8. When did the horse last race? Is he returning after a long ‘break’? Does he go well when ‘fresh’ or does he usually need a race or two? Has too much racing in a short period of time?

9. Jockeyship – Did he get a ‘good’ or ‘bad’ ride?

10. Race times – Above/below standard. Compare other rimes over the same distance on the day (if possible). Research and evaluate the times of similar races in past seasons.

评磅员需要考量的其他元素：

1．对于每一匹单独的赛马来说，它的成绩评分是在递增还是递减？是否有连续性？

2．该匹赛马参加比赛的时候，是否是在适合他的步调下奔跑？缓慢步调的比赛提供的信息经常都有误导性。

3．抽签闸位对他的成绩是否有影响？

4．它开场是否缓慢？

5．在起跑阶段或比赛进行阶段，它有否受到干扰。

6．它是否适应这个赛程的距离。

7．它是否能应付好赛道的综合条件。

8．这批赛马上次参赛是在何时，它是否刚经过长期的休赛？他是那种休赛后可以速热的赛马或是需要一两场的热身来适应比赛？他在近期是否参加了过多的比赛？

9．骑手表现 – 它是否被良好的策骑。

10．比赛成绩 – 高于/低于平均用时水平。如果可能的话，和今天相同赛程距离的比赛作比较。和过往赛季类似的比赛赛程中的成绩作比较和评估。

WEIGHT FOR AGE SCALE 按照年龄组别负重

A racehorse is not considered fully mature until he is aged four. In the Northern Hemisphere the official birthday of all racehorses is January 1st, while in the Southern Hemisphere it is July 1st (South America) or August 1st (Australia).

The weight-for-age scale was devised in England in the 19th century by one of horseracing’s greatest administrators Admiral Rous, and is still used in a similar format in Europe apart from a few slight adjustments. The weight-for-age scales do vary slightly in the different racing jurisdictions throughout the world but, as the globalization of racing progresses. A panel of international handicappers is working towards standardization.

Reference to the weight-for-age scale will show how many pounds (or kilos) a horse is deemed immature in any month over any distance. For example, by looking at the allowance the three year-old receives from older horses over 12 furlongs (2,400 metres) in late July we can see that the amount allowed is 13lbs (6kg). Therefore, in a weight-for-age race over 12 furlongs in late July where four year-olds and older are set to carry 9st 7lbs (60kg or 133lbs), the three year-old has to carry 8st 8lbs (54.5kg or 120lbs). Similarly, the three-year old receives his weight-for-age allowance in a handicap so when a three year-old and an older horse are both rated 95, the three year-old will carry 13lbs less than the older horse in a race in early July over 12 Furlongs (2,400 metres).

赛马在四岁的时候才被认为是完全成熟。在北半球，所有赛马的官方出生日期被设为1月1日，而在南半球所有赛马的官方生日都是7月1日（南美洲）和8月1日（澳大利亚）。

年龄组负重是由19世纪英国杰出的赛马管理者罗斯上将设计的，在经过一些轻微改动后，类似的负重方式在欧洲仍然被广泛使用。在世界上不同的赛马管理部门，年龄组别负重的方式有着活动或少的变化，但是伴随着愈演愈烈的全球化进程，国际评磅员正在向着标准化的年龄组别负重法努力。

年龄组别负重法决定了在任意距离的赛程中，一匹赛马的负磅重量与他相距成熟日期的月份数的关系。举例来说，在一场7月末举办的12弗隆（2400米）的比赛中，一匹三岁赛马，和一匹4岁赛马同场竞技，则可以少负重至多13磅（6公斤）。 因此，在这场7月底举行的比赛中，4岁和4岁以上赛马负重9英石7磅 (60公斤或133磅），而一匹三岁赛马将负重8英石 8磅（54.5公斤或120磅）。类似的，在让磅赛中三岁的年轻马匹也会得到让磅补贴，所以如果一匹三岁赛马和一匹四岁赛马同时评分都是95分的话，在一场7月初举办的12弗隆赛程的比赛中，三岁赛马会比成年赛马少负重13磅的重量。

Michelle and Jessica

文章：Melvin Day （梅尔文 戴依）

译文：Michelle Liu、 聂晶

编辑/摄影：Jessica Dong( 董雪）